Vol. I · No. 36 UNOFFICIAL · BUILT WITH PUBLIC DATA · NOT BETTING ADVICE

WillWin

an open AI forecast for the 2026 FIFA World Cup

An empty stadium at dusk before kickoff
2026-06-11 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City · T-minus 60 days

The 23rd World Cup, forecast nightly by a single language model.

Image generated by Gemini (gemini-3.1-flash-image-preview), one-shot, cached. Not a real venue.
The lede · last updated 12 Apr 2026, 01:42 UTC

Spain and France emerge as the strongest candidates to win the 2026 World Cup, with a balanced mix of elite talent, tactical depth, and favorable group positioning.

WillWin asks a 32-billion-parameter local language model to read the public record on every qualified team — official rankings, Elo, recent form, squad news, prior bookmaker odds, and the Opta supercomputer's published prior — and emit a single structured forecast. We average five runs and publish the result here, daily, with no edits and no human intervention. The model owes nothing to a sportsbook and we sell nothing.

Model
qwen3-32b
Runs averaged
3
Confidence
71%
Sources
10

The model's top twelve

probability of winning the tournament
  1. 01
    Spain

    Euro 2024 champions with a golden generation of young stars.

    17.2%
  2. 02
    France

    Defending runners-up with world-class attacking firepower.

    14.1%
  3. 03
    England

    Talented midfield and forward line with defensive stability.

    11.8%
  4. 04
    Germany

    Experienced core and emerging stars in transition phase.

    7.1%
  5. 05
    Portugal

    Cristiano Ronaldo's final chapter with a solid supporting cast.

    6.6%
  6. 06
    Brazil

    Creative flair and defensive resilience in Group D.

    5.6%
  7. 07
    Argentina

    Lionel Messi's last chance with a competitive squad.

    5.5%
  8. 08
    Netherlands

    Defensive solidity and attacking versatility in Group H.

    3.5%
  9. 09
    Belgium

    Kevin De Bruyne-led midfield with defensive experience.

    2.7%
  10. 10
    Croatia

    Veteran leadership and tactical discipline in Group J.

    2.4%
  11. 11
    Uruguay

    Defensive organization and attacking creativity in Group K.

    1.7%
  12. 12
    Colombia

    Explosive forwards and experienced defense in Group L.

    1.4%

How the model has moved

Five top contenders, six weekly snapshots. Spain has crossed France for the first time this cycle. Argentina has shed nearly three points since early March as the model re-weights age.

0% 5% 10% 15% 07 Mar 12 Apr ES FR EN DE AR

Model vs. the field

Where this AI disagrees with the Opta supercomputer and the consensus of bookmakers. Largest gaps: Argentina (model -2.5pt vs. bookies), Brazil (-1.4pt), Spain (+0.4pt).

BOOKIES · OPTA · MODEL (top to bottom) ES 17.2% FR 14.1% EN 11.8% DE 7.8% PT 6.6% BR 5.8% AR 5.5%

Dark horses the model is watching

Twelve groups, forty-eight teams

Top 2 + 8 best 3rd → R32
Vintage cartographic illustration of the world
16 host cities · United States · Canada · Mexico
Group A 5 teams
  1. Spain #2
  2. Morocco #14
  3. Poland #28
  4. Mali #53
  5. South Africa #56
Group B 4 teams
  1. France #1
  2. Senegal #17
  3. Ukraine #27
  4. Iran #20
Group C 4 teams
  1. England #4
  2. Japan #15
  3. Czechia #38
  4. Saudi Arabia #58
Group D 4 teams
  1. Brazil #6
  2. United States #16
  3. Norway #31
  4. Qatar #51
Group E 4 teams
  1. Germany #9
  2. Mexico #18
  3. Wales #33
  4. Iraq #60
Group F 4 teams
  1. Portugal #5
  2. Canada #30
  3. Paraguay #36
  4. Uzbekistan #62
Group G 4 teams
  1. Argentina #3
  2. Ecuador #24
  3. Egypt #34
  4. Costa Rica #47
Group H 4 teams
  1. Netherlands #7
  2. Australia #26
  3. Algeria #37
  4. Jamaica #64
Group I 4 teams
  1. Belgium #8
  2. South Korea #22
  3. Tunisia #41
  4. Panama #45
Group J 4 teams
  1. Croatia #10
  2. Switzerland #19
  3. Cameroon #43
  4. New Zealand #92
Group K 4 teams
  1. Uruguay #11
  2. Austria #21
  3. Ivory Coast #39
  4. Bolivia #84
Group L 4 teams
  1. Colombia #13
  2. Türkiye #25
  3. Ghana #49
  4. Venezuela #50

What the model is reading right now

  1. 01

    Spain and France dominate due to elite talent and recent success.

  2. 02

    Expanded format increases variance, favoring underdogs in knockout stages.

  3. 03

    Defending champions France face tougher path in Group B with Senegal and Iran.

  4. 04

    England's consistency and depth make them a dark horse contender.

  5. 05

    Morocco's defensive organization and youth offer surprise potential.

Curious how this number is made?

Ten public sources, a structured prompt, five independent model runs, averaged, published. No human in the loop. No cloud API.

Read the method →