Eurovision 2026
70th edition · Vienna, Austria
Who will win Eurovision? A nightly AI forecast from public data.
Sweden leads early Eurovision odds with strong pop pedigree, but with songs still emerging the field is wide open. Italy and host nation Austria are strong contenders.
WillWin asks a 32-billion-parameter local language model to analyse participating countries' track records, national selection results, betting odds, news sentiment, and historical voting patterns — then emit a calibrated probability forecast. Five runs averaged, published daily.
- Model
- qwen3-32b
- Runs
- 5
- Participants
- 39
- Data quality
- Pre-season
The model's top ten
probability of winning the grand final- 01 14.5% +0.0Sweden SE
Dominant Eurovision track record and strong pop industry.
- 02 9.8% +0.0Italy IT
Recent renaissance with diverse genre picks winning juries.
- 03 8.5% +0.0France FR
Francophone pop resurgence and artistic staging.
- 04 7.8% +0.0Ukraine UA
Strong televote support and culturally resonant entries.
- 05 7.2% +0.0Austria AT
Host country momentum after winning Eurovision 2025.
- 06 6.1% +0.0Spain ES
Renewed focus on contemporary pop after recent strong results.
- 07 5.5% +0.0Norway NO
Consistent qualifier with strong staging tradition.
- 08 4.8% +0.0Finland FI
Genre variety from metal to pop keeps them unpredictable.
- 09 4.2% +0.0United Kingdom GB
BBC investment paying off with stronger recent entries.
- 10 3.8% +0.0Netherlands NL
Consistent quality entries with strong jury appeal.
Dark horses the model is watching
- Croatia 3.2%
Innovative staging and unique musical identity.
- Greece 2.8%
Mediterranean pop crossover appeal with strong diaspora vote.
- Ireland 2.5%
Seven-time winner looking to recapture historic magic.
- Switzerland 2.2%
Fresh from hosting 2025 — strong recent momentum with Nemo's win.
39 participating countries
6 auto-qualified · 2 semi-finals- Austria AT
- France FR
- Germany DE
- Italy IT
- Spain ES
- United Kingdom GB
- Albania AL
- Armenia AM
- Australia AU
- Azerbaijan AZ
- Cyprus CY
- Denmark DK
- Finland FI
- Greece GR
- Ireland IE
- Latvia LV
- Moldova MD
- Montenegro ME
- Norway NO
- Portugal PT
- San Marino SM
- Slovenia SI
- Ukraine UA
- Belgium BE
- Croatia HR
- Czechia CZ
- Estonia EE
- Georgia GE
- Iceland IS
- Israel IL
- Lithuania LT
- Malta MT
- Netherlands NL
- North Macedonia MK
- Poland PL
- Romania RO
- Serbia RS
- Sweden SE
- Switzerland CH
What the model is reading right now
- 01
Songs are still being selected — current predictions are based on country track records, industry strength, and historical patterns.
- 02
Host country Austria won Eurovision 2025 and has strong home-crowd momentum at the Wiener Stadthalle.
- 03
The Big Five auto-qualification removes semi-final risk but limits rehearsal visibility.
- 04
Jury-televote split creates two distinct races — staging and vocals vs. cultural connection.
- 05
Sweden's consistent top-5 finishes make them the statistical favorite in any pre-song forecast.
Eurovision uses the same qwen3-32b model as our World Cup forecast — different data sources, same methodology.