Tour de France
113th edition · 21 stages · ~3333 km
Pogačar enters as overwhelming favourite after his dominant 2024 Giro-Tour double, but Vingegaard's return to full fitness and Evenepoel's Grand Tour maturation make this a three-horse race.
- Model
- qwen3-32b
- Runs
- 5
- Stages
- 21
- Data quality
- Pre-season
General Classification Forecast
Probability of winning the maillot jaune in Paris
- 01 35.0%Tadej Pogačar UAE Team Emirates · SLO
The most dominant Grand Tour rider since Merckx — wins on any terrain.
- 02 22.0%Jonas Vingegaard Visma-Lease a Bike · DEN
Two-time winner with the best climbing watts in the peloton when fit.
- 03 12.0%Remco Evenepoel Soudal-Quick Step · BEL
Olympic TT champion with improving Grand Tour pedigree.
- 04 6.0%Primož Roglič Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe · SLO
Vuelta specialist who keeps coming back for one more Tour tilt.
- 05 4.0%Egan Bernal INEOS Grenadiers · COL
2019 winner's long road back from injury — upside if fully fit.
- 06 3.0%Enric Mas Movistar · ESP
Consistent top-5 finisher who could capitalise if the big three falter.
- 07 3.0%Adam Yates UAE Team Emirates · GBR
Reliable domestique turned GC threat on the right parcours.
- 08 2.0%Carlos Rodríguez INEOS Grenadiers · ESP
Young Spaniard building year-on-year toward a podium challenge.
Dark horses
Spanish climbing prodigy with Pogačar as teammate and mentor.
American all-rounder whose TT strength could deliver a surprise GC result.
Key factors
- 01
Pogačar's 2024 Giro-Tour double was the first since Pantani in 1998 — he's the clear statistical favourite on any parcours.
- 02
Vingegaard's crash recovery timeline is the key unknown — full fitness means he's the only rider who can match Pogačar in the mountains.
- 03
Evenepoel's third Grand Tour could be where he puts it all together — his time trial advantage over pure climbers is significant.
- 04
The route profile (TBD) will be decisive — heavy mountain stages favour Pogačar/Vingegaard, TT-heavy routes benefit Evenepoel.
- 05
Team strength matters more than ever — UAE Team Emirates' depth gives Pogačar tactical flexibility no other contender has.
Public data sources, a structured prompt, five independent model runs, averaged, published. No human in the loop. No cloud API.